Trump 48, Hillary 42.6, USC Dornsife LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll through Nov. 4, 2016, published Nov. 5
“Presidential Election VoteThis chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November
The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton’s vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump’s (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a “95-percent confidence interval”. Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.
About the Survey✝
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.”