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Trump and Hillary in statistical tie, 43-42, ARG national poll, July 17-20, 2016. Trump +18 among Independent voters

July 21, 2016

July 17-20, 2016, Registered voters. 30% R, 35% D, 35% Independent, 3.2 error margin

7/21/16, “Poll Update,” Huffington Post

“2016 General Election – Clinton 43%, Trump 42% (American Research Group 7/17-7/20)”

Population 990 Registered Voters
Margin of Error ±3.2 percentage points
Polling Method Live Phone
Source ARG
This poll asked respondents 4 questions tracked by HuffPost Pollster. Read our FAQ.

If the election for president were being held today between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, for whom would you vote – Clinton or Trump?

Asked of 990 Registered Voters
Clinton 43%
Trump 42%
Other 6%
Undecided 9%
Asked of Registered Voters – Democrat
Clinton 85%
Trump 3%
Other 4%
Undecided 8%
Asked of Registered Voters – Republican
Clinton 7%
Trump 77%
Other 3%
Undecided 13%
Asked of Registered Voters – independent
Clinton 33%
Trump 51%
Other 10%
Undecided 6%

“Survey Methodology”

“Most of our public polling has the same methodology.

Beginning in February 2014, we use Address Based Sampling:

  • The sample frame is residential addresses of all households in the continental United States, states, or districts we poll.
  • The residential addresses randomly selected are matched to landline and cell phone telephone numbers.
  • Landline and cell phone telephone interviews are conducted by live interviewers.
  • Respondents are randomly selected among all adults (18 years or older) in the households.
  • For election surveys, respondents are screened for likely voting twice (we use a 1-10 scale – 1 is definitely not vote and 10 is definitely vote, as an entry screen, and a definitely vote as an exit screen).
  • Because we capture demographics from all households, we weight, if necessary, based on the total sample using current demographic estimates for the sample area.
  • We do not weight by political party. Political party is determined by a party registration question in party-registration states and “do you consider yourself to be” in non party-registration states.
  • Residential addresses not matched to telephone numbers are mailed survey packages. The survey packages allow respondents to identify their telephone numbers or to complete the surveys by mail, toll-free telephone number, or on the Internet using desktop or mobile devices.”

http://americanresearchgroup.com/methodology/

………………………………..

7/21/16, Huffington Post polls average

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

 

 

 

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